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concort
365 Posts |
 Posted - 06 Aug 2010 : 04:58:52
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http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100805/ap_on_re_as/as_china_us_carrier_killer
Dong Feng 21D - Worrisome To Say The Least.  I reckon we better start learning Chinese. Neehow Bantaba! 
Chinese missile could shift Pacific power balance
ABOARD THE USS GEORGE WASHINGTON – Nothing projects U.S. global air and sea power more vividly than supercarriers. Bristling with fighter jets that can reach deep into even landlocked trouble zones, America's virtually invincible carrier fleet has long enforced its dominance of the high seas.
China may soon put an end to that.
U.S. naval planners are scrambling to deal with what analysts say is a game-changing weapon being developed by China — an unprecedented carrier-killing missile called the Dong Feng 21D that could be launched from land with enough accuracy to penetrate the defenses of even the most advanced moving aircraft carrier at a distance of more than 1,500 kilometers (900 miles).
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EDITOR'S NOTE — The USS George Washington supercarrier recently deployed off North Korea in a high-profile show of U.S. sea power. AP Tokyo News Editor Eric Talmadge was aboard the carrier, and filed this report.
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Analysts say final testing of the missile could come as soon as the end of this year, though questions remain about how fast China will be able to perfect its accuracy to the level needed to threaten a moving carrier at sea.
The weapon, a version of which was displayed last year in a Chinese military parade, could revolutionize China's role in the Pacific balance of power, seriously weakening Washington's ability to intervene in any potential conflict over Taiwan or North Korea. It could also deny U.S. ships safe access to international waters near China's 11,200-mile (18,000-kilometer) -long coastline.
While a nuclear bomb could theoretically sink a carrier, assuming its user was willing to raise the stakes to atomic levels, the conventionally-armed Dong Feng 21D's uniqueness is in its ability to hit a powerfully defended moving target with pin-point precision.
The Chinese Defense Ministry did not immediately respond to the AP's request for a comment.
Funded by annual double-digit increases in the defense budget for almost every year of the past two decades, the Chinese navy has become Asia's largest and has expanded beyond its traditional mission of retaking Taiwan to push its sphere of influence deeper into the Pacific and protect vital maritime trade routes.
"The Navy has long had to fear carrier-killing capabilities," said Patrick Cronin, senior director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the nonpartisan, Washington-based Center for a New American Security. "The emerging Chinese antiship missile capability, and in particular the DF 21D, represents the first post-Cold War capability that is both potentially capable of stopping our naval power projection and deliberately designed for that purpose."
Setting the stage for a possible conflict, Beijing has grown increasingly vocal in its demands for the U.S. to stay away from the wide swaths of ocean — covering much of the Yellow, East and South China seas — where it claims exclusivity.
It strongly opposed plans to hold U.S.-South Korean war games in the Yellow Sea off the northeastern Chinese coast, saying the participation of the USS George Washington supercarrier, with its 1,092-foot (333-meter) flight deck and 6,250 personnel, would be a provocation because it put Beijing within striking range of U.S. F-18 warplanes.
The carrier instead took part in maneuvers held farther away in the Sea of Japan.
U.S. officials deny Chinese pressure kept it away, and say they will not be told by Beijing where they can operate.
"We reserve the right to exercise in international waters anywhere in the world," Rear Adm. Daniel Cloyd, who headed the U.S. side of the exercises, said aboard the carrier during the maneuvers, which ended last week.
But the new missile, if able to evade the defenses of a carrier and of the vessels sailing with it, could undermine that policy.
"China can reach out and hit the U.S. well before the U.S. can get close enough to the mainland to hit back," said Toshi Yoshihara, an associate professor at the U.S. Naval War College. He said U.S. ships have only twice been that vulnerable — against Japan in World War II and against Soviet bombers in the Cold War.
Carrier-killing missiles "could have an enduring psychological effect on U.S. policymakers," he e-mailed to The AP. "It underscores more broadly that the U.S. Navy no longer rules the waves as it has since the end of World War II. The stark reality is that sea control cannot be taken for granted anymore."
Yoshihara said the weapon is causing considerable consternation in Washington, though — with attention focused on land wars in Afghanistan and Iraq — its implications haven't been widely discussed in public.
Analysts note that while much has been made of China's efforts to ready a carrier fleet of its own, it would likely take decades to catch U.S. carrier crews' level of expertise, training and experience.
But Beijing does not need to match the U.S. carrier for carrier. The Dong Feng 21D, smarter, and vastly cheaper, could successfully attack a U.S. carrier, or at least deter it from getting too close.
U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates warned of the threat in a speech last September at the Air Force Association Convention.
"When considering the military-modernization programs of countries like China, we should be concerned less with their potential ability to challenge the U.S. symmetrically — fighter to fighter or ship to ship — and more with their ability to disrupt our freedom of movement and narrow our strategic options," he said.
Gates said China's investments in cyber and anti-satellite warfare, anti-air and anti-ship weaponry, along with ballistic missiles, "could threaten America's primary way to project power" through its forward air bases and carrier strike groups.
The Pentagon has been worried for years about China getting an anti-ship ballistic missile. The Pentagon considers such a missile an "anti-access," weapon, meaning that it could deny others access to certain areas.
The Air Force's top surveillance and intelligence officer, Lt. Gen. David Deptula, told reporters this week that China's effort to increase anti-access capability is part of a worrisome trend.
He did not single out the DF 21D, but said: "While we might not fight the Chinese, we may end up in situations where we'll certainly be opposing the equipment that they build and sell around the world."
Questions remain over when — and if — China will perfect the technology; hitting a moving carrier is no mean feat, requiring state-of-the-art guidance systems, and some experts believe it will take China a decade or so to field a reliable threat. Others, however, say final tests of the missile could come in the next year or two.
Former Navy commander James Kraska, a professor of international law and sea power at the U.S. Naval War College, recently wrote a controversial article in the magazine Orbis outlining a hypothetical scenario set just five years from now in which a Deng Feng 21D missile with a penetrator warhead sinks the USS George Washington.
That would usher in a "new epoch of international order in which Beijing emerges to displace the United States."
While China's Defense Ministry never comments on new weapons before they become operational, the DF 21D — which would travel at 10 times the speed of sound and carry conventional payloads — has been much discussed by military buffs online.
A pseudonymous article posted on Xinhuanet, website of China's official news agency, imagines the U.S. dispatching the George Washington to aid Taiwan against a Chinese attack.
The Chinese would respond with three salvos of DF 21D, the first of which would pierce the hull, start fires and shut down flight operations, the article says. The second would knock out its engines and be accompanied by air attacks. The third wave, the article says, would "send the George Washington to the bottom of the ocean."
Comments on the article were mostly positive.
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AP writer Christopher Bodeen in Beijing and National Security Writer Anne Gearan in Washington, D.C., contributed to this report.
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As Salamu Alaikum Waramatullah Wabarakatu |
Edited by - concort on 06 Aug 2010 05:01:37 |
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turk
USA
3356 Posts |
Posted - 06 Aug 2010 : 05:33:23
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| China is not the only game changer. China will be the next superpower but there are other regional powers are challenging western dominance. The western world is on decline. I expect them to do something about that in the near future. Maybe a war. |
diaspora! Too many Chiefs and Very Few Indians.
Halifa Salah: PDOIS is however realistic. It is fully aware that the Gambian voters are yet to reach a level of political consciousness that they rely on to vote on the basis of Principles, policies and programmes and practices. |
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kayjatta
2978 Posts |
Posted - 06 Aug 2010 : 07:18:52
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China does not have the technological resources to create such a precision weapon. At best, anything they come up with will be like 'a North Korean missile'. It will never hit a target! Watchout for anything "Made in China"!!
quote:
Originally posted by turk
China is not the only game changer. China will be the next superpower but there are other regional powers are challenging western dominance. The western world is on decline. I expect them to do something about that in the near future. Maybe a war.
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turk
USA
3356 Posts |
Posted - 06 Aug 2010 : 07:25:39
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| Denial. China has taken over Japan with the GDP. Soon, USA will be the third largest economy after China and EU. |
diaspora! Too many Chiefs and Very Few Indians.
Halifa Salah: PDOIS is however realistic. It is fully aware that the Gambian voters are yet to reach a level of political consciousness that they rely on to vote on the basis of Principles, policies and programmes and practices. |
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kayjatta
2978 Posts |
Posted - 06 Aug 2010 : 07:53:02
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quote:
Originally posted by turk
Denial. China has taken over Japan with the GDP. Soon, USA will be the third largest economy after China and EU.
China's next bust ( estimated at 5 years away-don't quote me on it) will put it back at its 3rd or 4th place. China's economy is not robust enough to endure a violent shake-up like the U.S. and has Western Europe has experienced recently. |
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turk
USA
3356 Posts |
Posted - 06 Aug 2010 : 08:03:40
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lol. You make hilarious comments. While you are talking funny, Economist expect China to be number one in near future. Contrary, USA has demonstrated they are in big trouble economically. The population getting older. The industry is moving to APAC. China did not shake-up at the first place even though there was financial crisis as it is robust enough and has high GDP growth to deal with any kind of financial crisis. China owns USA. I expect USA declare moratorium just to start war with China before it is too late.
And concort has a valid point. In Turkey, my daughter's private school has started Chinese language training. And in Canada now, she goes school, and they have Chinese immersion program. I am seriously considering her study chinese. |
diaspora! Too many Chiefs and Very Few Indians.
Halifa Salah: PDOIS is however realistic. It is fully aware that the Gambian voters are yet to reach a level of political consciousness that they rely on to vote on the basis of Principles, policies and programmes and practices. |
Edited by - turk on 06 Aug 2010 08:05:23 |
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kayjatta
2978 Posts |
Posted - 06 Aug 2010 : 08:36:25
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| Well if China comprise of nearly half the world population, then it makes sense to learn Chinese. I have already learned my first word. Ni hao, it means hi; just ask the African Presidents . But this is just because the size of China's population makes it likely that you will have to deal with a Chinese in the global market than anything else. You are over-rating China's significance as a potential economic and military super-power... |
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concort
365 Posts |
Posted - 06 Aug 2010 : 13:20:36
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Kay, in as much as China is regarded as a rising star economically, China is also a "rising threat" militarily to her neighbors and the world at large. This very same threat with the invention of the DF 21D has propmpted Sec. Gates to convene a meeting with the top echolon of the military some time last September to discuss how the DF 21D could force the U.S to shift some of its policies in that region.
Should Taiwan be concerned with China's newly found "toy"? I would think so. The U.S should equally be concerned for two main reasons- The DF 21D could limited their ability to lunch any successful military operations in that region. Secondly, the deadly Killer as they are called, are not too expensive to be produced. China could very well end up selling these weapons to the wrong countries - countries like Venezuela, Iran, Russia and North Korea. What's the U.S doing about this issue? What can they do about this issue other than imposing harsh economic sanctions on China?
http://www.bing.com/videos/?FORM=MFEVID&publ=D168C6E2-90C6-47F4-AABE-21582D3A32E1&crea=STND_MFEVID_core_HuffPoQ1FY2011_CustomVidLink_1x1&q=China+missile&docid=209545461860&FORM=HUFPST#
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As Salamu Alaikum Waramatullah Wabarakatu |
Edited by - concort on 06 Aug 2010 14:05:32 |
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toubab1020
12314 Posts |
Posted - 06 Aug 2010 : 14:53:11
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"Maybe a war." How many wars do you want TURK 
quote:
Originally posted by turk
China is not the only game changer. China will be the next superpower but there are other regional powers are challenging western dominance. The western world is on decline. I expect them to do something about that in the near future. Maybe a war.
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"Simple is good" & I strongly dislike politics. You cannot defend the indefensible.
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turk
USA
3356 Posts |
Posted - 06 Aug 2010 : 15:17:51
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I don't want war. I am peaceful man. But I just don't trust western world who involved the most wars if you look at the history of humanity.
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diaspora! Too many Chiefs and Very Few Indians.
Halifa Salah: PDOIS is however realistic. It is fully aware that the Gambian voters are yet to reach a level of political consciousness that they rely on to vote on the basis of Principles, policies and programmes and practices. |
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turk
USA
3356 Posts |
Posted - 06 Aug 2010 : 15:22:13
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quote:
But this is just because the size of China's population makes it likely that you will have to deal with a Chinese in the global market than anything else. You are over-rating China's significance as a potential economic and military super-power...
Wait a minute. You are saying China and India having almost half of the world population. China is quarter. And you accept the fact that one has to deal with China in global market, than you claim I am over-rating China's significance as a potential economic power. In our Generation, they will be biggest economy in the world and I am over-rating their significance and potential? My company had made more investment in China than they made in USA last year alone. And I am talking about the biggest business software company in the world. lol. |
diaspora! Too many Chiefs and Very Few Indians.
Halifa Salah: PDOIS is however realistic. It is fully aware that the Gambian voters are yet to reach a level of political consciousness that they rely on to vote on the basis of Principles, policies and programmes and practices. |
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turk
USA
3356 Posts |
Posted - 06 Aug 2010 : 15:36:49
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Kay
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_future_GDP_(PPP)_estimates
P.S. Copy and paste the link to your browser. The parenthesis is not rendered correctly.
In four years, the gdp of EU, USA and China will be:
EU: 18,261.449
USA: 18,249.564
China: 16,854.661
In four years, China will be close to USA.
But what is worse for USA is that
in 2010
USA 14,799,564
China 9,711,717
so Usa increase by 23 percent, china increase is 73 percent. If you still think I am over-rating China's significant, it is clearly you are in denial.
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diaspora! Too many Chiefs and Very Few Indians.
Halifa Salah: PDOIS is however realistic. It is fully aware that the Gambian voters are yet to reach a level of political consciousness that they rely on to vote on the basis of Principles, policies and programmes and practices. |
Edited by - turk on 06 Aug 2010 15:57:18 |
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kayjatta
2978 Posts |
Posted - 08 Aug 2010 : 08:01:17
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Turk your figures are not correct! By 2015 the GDP figures for the U.S., China and India are estimated at 18 billion, 9 billion and 2 billion respectively.
Also you seem to be trapped in what Professor Toffler called "straight-line thinking", because you seem to be thinking that China's high growth rate today will continue indefinitely into the future. This is false.
Here are some expert opinions: Some of the greatest authorities on China today are Prof. Lin of the Asia Institute, Prof. Chua of the Asia Wall Street Journal, and Prof. Edwards of UCLA.
While all the three scholars mentioned above share some optimism about the Chinese economy for the next 20 to 30 years, there is general consensus about the inherent instabilities in the Chinese economy that are redflags for future crash. I will list them here:
1. Official Chinese government data about economic performance is unreliable.
2. China's alleged economic growth is not matched by increased business activity as energy consumption, a key indicator of business activity, continue to fall.
3. China's financial institutions are riddled with bad debth which are conservatively estimated to be over 15% of assets.
4. China's economy is investment driven of up to 70% according to Prof. Chua compared to 20% for U.S. and 15% for Japan.
5. China's political instability both from within (internal) and without(external). China's autocratic government, combined with a deepening sense of corruption could flare up social and political tensions unpredictably. Also the dormant but looming threats over Hong Kong and Taiwan could have unpredictable distabilizing effects on mainland China and its economic prospects.
6. China's fast aging population, as blamed on its "one-child" policy could further erode national wealth as payments on pensions and care for the elderly skyrocket in the near fuure.
7. China's lopsided development characterized by widening disparity and inequality between rural and urban areas could exercerbate rural-urban migration and the consequent social and political tensions.
Prof. Lin, one of the biggest proponents of the Chinese economy interestingly acknowledged that "China still has a long way before it becomes even a developed country". Lin also agreed that China today is where Japan was in the 1960s, and that China's projected 20 to 30 years growth is on the trajectory of the ill-fated 40 years rise of the four "Asian Tigers". Remeber the "Asian Tigers", Turk?Thank you. |
Edited by - kayjatta on 08 Aug 2010 08:10:41 |
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turk
USA
3356 Posts |
Posted - 08 Aug 2010 : 15:24:44
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My figures are not correct? Where are the correct ones? Provide the link please. I did not come up with these numbers. You probably referring nominal GDP, I am referring purchasing power parity.
You continue to be in denial. I understand, it is hard to accept the fact that they are declining, but you must accept the reality. We are talking about in 4 years, no thinking of indefinite growth here. Beside USA economy is going to start shrink. Especially non-productive sectors like health care kicked in by Obama's new health care plan and the population starts getting older and non-productive. One of the major problem with USA economy will be migrants. There used to be skilled migrants coming, there are less and less skilled migrant coming up to USA. In fact, there is is reverse migration now. Many are turning to go back their own countries as their home are getting better than USA. USA is turning to third world countries. I am comparing the quality of education for example. It is amazing but in Istanbul, private childcare payment monthly almost 400 dollars and the student teacher ratio is one to eight, students have indoor swimming pool, music, dance, art and science programs. There is no way I am able to find a good program for my daughter in neither in USA nor in Canada like Istanbul. If I did not have my job in North America I would not live in north america, the quality life is much worse than fifteen years ago.
I am not sure if you have been to Europe, Malaysia, Singapore, Turkey the quality of life is on decline in north america and you can see the obvious. Have you been to Shanghai? Hong Kong? Hong Kong is a city where you see the economic dynamism. The markets are full, people are spending like crazy. That is true China is still behind the USA as GDP per capita but it is growing. Just like your list, they have made the similar predictions 10 years ago, China made them eat their own words. You should try travelling these places. I am fortunate I work for an international company to have opportunity to work these places.
The east is rising. 20 years ago, China was not even in top 10. In 2015 they are ready to take over USA. Do you know the debt of USA to china?
It is not only about China. Other countries are growing. Turkey, Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia. That is why we have g20 now. G8 is becoming irrelevant. Slowly but surely the western countries will be bumped out from the first 10. The future is the east.
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diaspora! Too many Chiefs and Very Few Indians.
Halifa Salah: PDOIS is however realistic. It is fully aware that the Gambian voters are yet to reach a level of political consciousness that they rely on to vote on the basis of Principles, policies and programmes and practices. |
Edited by - turk on 08 Aug 2010 15:33:27 |
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turk
USA
3356 Posts |
Posted - 08 Aug 2010 : 22:59:46
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Kayjatta let me try again with the factual data.
In 1980, first top 10 gdp countries, 8 were western plus japan.
In 2015, only 6 of them western plus japan!
In 1980s, 15 out of 25 were western plus japan.
In 2015, 11 out of 25 were western plus japan.
In 1980, rising powers were like china was 11th, in 2015 they are second.
Turkey was 24th, now 16th.
GDP 1980
usa
japan
germany
france
uk
italy
canada
brazil
spain
mexico
china
netherlands
india
australia
saudi arabia
sweden
belgium
swiss
iran
austria
south africa
indonesia
argentina
turkey
denmark
The original data i posted earlier, GDP by 2015.
USA
china
japan
india
germany
russia
uk
france
brazil
italy
mexico
south korea
spain
canada
indonesia
turkey
australia
iran
taiwan
poland
netherland
saudi arabia
argentine
south africa
egypt
So, it clearly shows that the power of nations are changing and the power is shifting from west to east. APAC is now the largest economic zone, not atlantic trade. In canada, former maritime cities like nova scotia were so rich, now they are miserable and Vancouver is booming due to pacific trade. I know it is very difficult for you to accept being on the losing side and that is why you are in denial, but that is the reality.
And here is what will happen in 2050 according to some.
china
USA
india
japan
brazil
germany
mexico
indonesia
turkey
russia
uk
france
south korea
italy
iran
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diaspora! Too many Chiefs and Very Few Indians.
Halifa Salah: PDOIS is however realistic. It is fully aware that the Gambian voters are yet to reach a level of political consciousness that they rely on to vote on the basis of Principles, policies and programmes and practices. |
Edited by - turk on 09 Aug 2010 04:59:16 |
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kayjatta
2978 Posts |
Posted - 09 Aug 2010 : 09:42:26
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Some time in the year of 2000, Dr. Saja Taal of the Gambia argued on the pages of the Daily Observer that the "21st Century is the century of Africa". In that argument the acclaimed political scientist went on to explain how Africa will take center-stage in world economics and politics. It would be nice if that happened, but those of us who knew better at the time knew that we had to be realistic.
I believe it was 2008 when Newsweek editor Fareed Zakria published his much celebrated book, "The Post-American World". The book draws inspiration from 911, U.S. war on terror (especially in Iraq) and the financial meltdown starting in 2007. In that book ( I believe is the source of Turk's ispiration)Zakaria, with a doctorate in political science from Harvard, chronicles how the "global balance of power" shifts from the West (U.S.-dominated world) to the East (dominated by China and India). "The Post-American World", which largely describes and explains the how and why of the fall of Western dominion and power, is also noted to be not much more than teleology.
The proponents of 'Chinese superpowerism' often rely on a set of precarious assumptions to bolster their theory. There are particularly three factors that pose significant threats to the future of the Chinese economy, according to the Director of Finance at the Institute at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (see China.org.cn).
1. Labor cost: China's investment and export-driven economy is aided by low labor costs. Increases in labor cost could offset that situation.
2. Stable government: regional as well as rural-urban inequality, and politcal repression could result in social tension and disruption to economic activity.
3. Real estate bust: China's massive investment in construction and real estate could be a strain on the financial institutions, already saddled with bad debt.
It has also been observed that despite the rhetoric about China's economic prospect, the per-capta GDP of China lags far behind that of Japan, U.S., France and Britain.
Even among developing countries (China is still a developing country, as we speak now), China only occupies a low rank.
To conclude, while it is no denial that China's economy appears to be growing, and may continue to do so for years or decades to come; there is no certainty that China is going to over-take the United States as the world's economic (and military)power. Japan, as well as the "Asian Tigers" never made it that far. The Soviet Union never made it either. China may fall short too. Please note that China already has the largest military in the world, that does not make it the military super-power; did it? Besides, there are sufficient number of experts who agree that there are enough redflags in the Chinese economy that could thwart growth in the future.
It is understandable that 'anti-Western propagandists' would like to expolit China's rosy, but even if exaggerated, economic outlook as comfort, the fact remains that China is still a struggling "Third-World" country. And did I hear about Turkey? When did Turkey count? |
Edited by - kayjatta on 09 Aug 2010 09:49:02 |
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