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blackerberry2004
69 Posts |
 Posted - 26 Sep 2006 : 15:19:05
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President Yaya Jammeh swept the polls with a resounding victory. The results of the election indicated that Gambians on the ground prefer Yaya Jammeh to Halifa Sallah or Ousainou Darboe. He had managed to defeat both opponents in all the 48 constituents except one, Kiang West. The margin of this victory was colossal and to say the least, humiliating for the opposition. He has obtained the mandate of the people that even eluded President Jawara.
Although there are many claims that seem to suggest that Yaya, one way or another, won the election because of voter fraud, voter apathy and the like, I beg to differ. It seems like people in the Diaspora seem to underestimate Jammeh’s popularity or are out of touch with the realities on the ground. One claim that seems to be more plausible, yet un-provable, is the fact that the lack of unity within the opposition had certainly eroded the oppositions’ credibility and popularity and thereby changing the dynamics of the election.
Notwithstanding this, I would dare to say that Jammeh is liked by the majority of The Gambians whether we like it or not. Below, I will attempt to give a cursory analysis of the factors claimed to be the reasons for the oppositions’ loss.
Voter Apathy
As for the claim that voter apathy is the culprit for this dismal showing by the opposition, I beg to differ. Jammeh received 264,404 votes or 67%. The turn out was disappointingly low (59%) especially when compared to the 2001 high turn out of 80% which was quite high especially in Africa. However, if we superimpose this 80% turn out (or 536,000 votes instead of the 392,685 votes actually cast) in this 2006 election, Jammeh would still be victorious even if we assume that the remaining 143,315 votes all go to his closest opponent, Ousainou Darboe. Ousainou Darboe’s 104,808 votes plus the 143,315 potential votes attributed to voter apathy would total 248,123 votes which would still dwarf Jammeh’s 264,404 votes. Hence, Jammeh still would have been the winner amidst high voter turnout (even though other factors such as heavy rain, time of election, i.e. farming season, emigration, among other things, also contributed to this low turn out).
Voter Fraud
Before the election, there were allegations that 50,000 or 95,000 Casamance residents were illegally given voters’ cards and some paraded into Gambia to vote for the incumbent Yaya Jammeh. The logistical nightmare of having to proportionately distribute these alleged illegal voters across the country so as to avoid fraud detection (i.e. having more votes that registered voters) is daunting. I am not attempting to say that there were no voter irregularities, but the magnitude of Jammeh’s victory over Darboe (159,596 vote differential which is even more than votes received by Darboe) is much higher than the 95,000 illegal votes alleged. Hence, the voter fraud argument does not adequately explain Jammeh’s victory.
Media Conspiracy
There are also claims that Jammeh amassed the resources of the State, particularly GRTS to bolster his campaign. I agree with this claim; however, it is not enough to explain the wide margin and the effects on the constituencies in the Gambia. To augment one’s chance of winning an election, one has to be an incumbent. In America, incumbency seems to benefit 97% of Congress because of one’s greater access to the media in the course of dispensing ones duty. We all know that each candidate was given an ‘equal’ air time. I can comfortably claim that most, if not all, Gambians in Banjul, Serekunda, Bakau and the rest of the Kombos have heard of both Halifa and Darboe’s messages (in the case of Halifa, people know him well before Jammeh) and yet the majority decided to vote against them even in their respective constituents. So it is not the lack of coverage entirely that led to their defeat, but the fact that Jammeh was able to sell himself more to the electorates. The fact that the opposition split aided Jammeh quite well. Who’s to blame for that?
What next?
For us in the Diaspora, we seem to have a divergent view with those on the ground. We need to reconcile this divergence through dialogue with our folks back home. Most Gambians don’t care about Jammeh’s tyranny as long as he does not trample one of their immediate family members. Most care less even if it is a distant relative whose natural rights are violated. How many times did Gambians take to the streets to protest media harassment, alleged kidnappings, arrests and killings? The Gambians on the ground see more infrastructural developments and are okay with human rights abuses here and there as long as it is at bay.
The opposition should avoid crying over spilt milk as this election is truly won by Jammeh. In the mean time, the opposition need to:
1) form a strategic alliance for the parliamentary elections in January where only one opposition candidate would be fielded against the APRC contender. They do not need to form an alliance per se but can have an agreement of non-compete. This would improve their chances of gaining more seats in parliament and hence avoiding the same fate in the recent presidential elections. It would be futile to boycott the elections.
2) get rid of their egos and get ready to regain the confidence of the Gambian people, particularly those on the ground. They need to identify and groom few individuals and have ONE candidate to run against the president in 2011 (ouch!). The split, accusations and counteraccusations apparently were a voter turn off.
Jammeh is duly elected by the people and let’s pray that God gives him wisdom and kind heart to rule this beloved country
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kobo
United Kingdom
7765 Posts |
Posted - 26 Sep 2006 : 19:21:13
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Thanks blackberry for your expert analysis of the statistics. I beg to differ that your analysis were based on the outcomes and available results. its not about the outcomes but the causes for the voter aparty, charaterised by massive mass defections and protests votes to increase the numbers that absolutely gave Jammeh and APRC victory. I do agree that APRC were better organised and knew the terrain at home very well but if the opposition acted decisively, resolve the issue of flagbearer and united under one umbrella aftermath of the lessons learnt from the bye-elections, it would have made a great impact as POVERTY IS BITTING HARD and persistent failures of the trade seasons gave the opposition to count on the POOR FARMERS! APRC did not gave them the opportunity to prepare themselves and fast track the election date held in September.
Thanks for your useful analysis! |
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kayjatta
2978 Posts |
Posted - 26 Sep 2006 : 19:29:02
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| could it be possible that those thousands of opposition defectors turned in their voters cards to the APRC for much needed cash so they do not have to vote thereby causing the unexpectedly low turn out ? |
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rah
117 Posts |
Posted - 26 Sep 2006 : 19:54:43
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[Rah]’s input, according to my meager math knowledge, and all are welcome to correct me. reveals that only 39.5% of registered voters actually voted for **** J./APRC, totaling to 264,404 votes. The rest, i.e. 405,596 registered voters didn't vote for them, equating to 60.5% of registered voters who either voted for the opposition or just got intimidated from participating. That’s my input on the election results. For your information, the total amount of registered voters was 670,000 +/-? yeh,rah |
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blackerberry2004
69 Posts |
Posted - 26 Sep 2006 : 19:57:28
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quote:
Originally posted by kobo
Thanks blackberry for your expert analysis of the statistics. I beg to differ that your analysis were based on the outcomes and available results. its not about the outcomes but the causes for the voter aparty, charaterised by massive mass defections and protests votes to increase the numbers that absolutely gave Jammeh and APRC victory. I do agree that APRC were better organised and knew the terrain at home very well but if the opposition acted decisively, resolve the issue of flagbearer and united under one umbrella aftermath of the lessons learnt from the bye-elections, it would have made a great impact as POVERTY IS BITTING HARD and persistent failures of the trade seasons gave the opposition to count on the POOR FARMERS! APRC did not gave them the opportunity to prepare themselves and fast track the election date held in September.
Thanks for your useful analysis!
Kobo, had the opposition united under one coalition, then the dynamics might have been different (this is an untested theory though). Being that this is not the case, Jammeh defeated them hands down. A rational person would abstain from voting rather than vote for someone who they know is detrimental to their livelihoods. Hence protest votes are miniscule in the grand scheme of things. Amidst all claims, there had not been a claim of voter buying. This is only effective in constituent-based voting such as parliamentary elections. Jammeh or APRC would literally have to buy tens of thousands of assumed opposition supporters across the country to make this effective. Hence, this is not usually a tactic that one engages in a countrywide election. Let's accept the fact that he won and the opposition should go back to the drawing board to convince the electorates that they would be better for them than Jammeh.
I talked to people on the ground and even the BBC reporter sensed a victory for Jammeh before the elections. The opposition, failing to come together, have led to their demise. You see, the margin is so great that it is hard to dismiss the results as fraudalent. Had the conditions been different, that is, one opposition presidential candidate, then maybe, maybe the opposition would have had a chance.
My general observation is that the majority of Gambians support Jammeh including many members of my family. My stand is, if the people suffer enough, then they will do SOMETHING. Till that time, Jammeh will reign over us. |
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blackerberry2004
69 Posts |
Posted - 26 Sep 2006 : 20:08:58
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quote:
Originally posted by rah
[Rah]’s input, according to my meager math knowledge, and all are welcome to correct me. reveals that only 39.5% of registered voters actually voted for **** J./APRC, totaling to 264,404 votes. The rest, i.e. 405,596 registered voters didn't vote for them, equating to 60.5% of registered voters who either voted for the opposition or just got intimidated from participating. That’s my input on the election results. For your information, the total amount of registered voters was 670,000 +/-? yeh,rah
Your point is right RAH that the majority of registered voters did not vote for Jammeh. However, there is never a 100% voter turn out and so I find it less useful to quote this fact. Last election, no one complained about the voter turn out (which is infact higher than most elections I follow including in America) and so I use this 80 percent as a benchmark. The voter turn out is affected by people who registered to vote or obtain a voter's card but emigrated to Europe, America, Senegal, etc. I know quite a few people who have registered to vote (some voted in 2001) and are now residing out of Gambia. You see, the Gambia government does not do a good job purging the voter registry. How many people you know left Gambia since 2001 and had registered to vote? Hence, the actual available voters is less than the 670,000 in reality. A great fallacy is that all people who did not vote did not endorse Yaya Jammeh.
Thanks for your input, though! |
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kobo
United Kingdom
7765 Posts |
Posted - 26 Sep 2006 : 20:13:27
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You have endorsed my views about the causes and weaknesses of the opposition. I said the dis-integration have a great impact in the outcomes of the results. Jammeh absolutely won with a clear victory and I highlighted that APRC have a good network on the ground and had greater advantage for victory.
However its a foregone conclusion but the untested strategic theories were the hopes which would have made a difference on the outcomes. |
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kondorong
Gambia
4380 Posts |
Posted - 26 Sep 2006 : 21:50:29
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My observations are thus:
1.Jammeh won the elections. The margin is too wide for vote rigging.
2.Gambians still believe jammeh is the way for the next five years and therefore we have to respect that decision. Human rights is very new in our sub region and is only relevant to most Gambians in the Diaspora and not at home.
3. The opposition was less organized and provided no clear front to attract a large following.
4.The opposition should still continue the process and participate in National Assembly elections
5. The opposition should go back to the drawing board and organize better in time for 2011.
6. If you can’t beat them join them. May be the opposition should also use the same campaign tactics like APRC, beat the drums, give away ASOBIS, buy rice, give fish money and so on. The reason is, most electorates only "feel" that their share of the national cake is given during campaigns and as such will always vote for the person who gives them money, beat the drums and pay school fees. The concept of a recurrent budget is way beyond the understanding of many voters.
Personal and tangible gifts make more followings. In many parts of the interior, contact with elected representatives is like a flash in the pan and in many cases never seen until every five years. The only exception is Wuli West where PDOIS has set up Citizens Offices for people to lodge complaints which are forwarded to party headquarters for follow up. It is a working example that should be replicated by all parties. It is working well with them. It was the only area that NADD won.
7. That the current leadership of the opposition should all resign and allow a new breed of politicians. The 41% protest vote is an indication of the rejection of all the candidates. Nearly half the registered voters have no confidence in any of the candidates. It speaks volumes.
8. The results also confirm that PPP is a dead horse because the statistics are scary. A party that stayed in power for 30 years is only winning 50 votes in a constituency, which is in fact a total of the votes from PDOIS and NDAM, says a lot. It indicates a total rejection and Jawara's coming home did not help the party either. This is because most PPP supporters were concerned about Jawara’s welfare and once APRC addressed that issue, many became their supporters. PPP would have been still effective if Jawara remained in exile. PPP was Jawara and Jawara was PPP. So was or is NCP. I don’t know if they still exist or not.
PDOIS needs to start to recruit potential persons beyond Halifa and Sedia. The two have been the face of the Party and that should be worked on otherwise they will suffer the same fate as PPP.
9. There is a very likelihood that NADD may not survive beyond the National Assembly elections. The disastrous results is not providing any common ground and hope to stay together.
10. UDP/NRP Alliance may also not survive beyond the National Assembly elections unless if Hamat is made the leader of their coalition. Anything short of that will lead to disintegration. Ousainou may be very close to the 65 years age limit by 2011.
11. If Jammeh decides not to contest the 2011 elections, his party will die out with his exit. No doubt about that. Currently, there is no uniting person in the party except him and it looks like history will repeat itself just like in the case of NCP and PPP.
Our biggest problem is not preparing other people to take over once we leave. Every one is dependent on one individual, which is a serious concern. Even in business, the same trend continues and once the owner dies, the enterprise also grinds to a halt. In fact once the head of a successful household head dies, the compound becomes the shadow of its former glory. NDEYE SAN (pity) is always uttered once you pass such a home leaving the heirs ill prepared for responsibility. This trend in our homes manifests itself in government and our public life. Look around the Gambia and you can name many.
Once again, the people have spoken and in the absence of a credible evidence of foul play filed with the courts, I send my congratulations to both the winner and losers. They have all contributed to the democratic process thereby rejecting a de facto one party state. Raise your heads high and there is nothing to be ashamed of. It is only in a democracy that you can have a winner and a loser.
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rah
117 Posts |
Posted - 26 Sep 2006 : 22:06:11
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quote:
Originally posted by rah
[Rah]’s input, according to my meager math knowledge, and all are welcome to correct me. reveals that only 39.5% of registered voters actually voted for **** J./APRC, totaling to 264,404 votes. The rest, i.e. 405,596 registered voters didn't vote for them, equating to 60.5% of registered voters who either voted for the opposition or just got intimidated from participating. That’s my input on the election results. For your information, the total amount of registered voters was 670,000 +/-? yeh,rah
Voter turnout of 59% in 2006 is a Far Cry from the 80% turnout of 2001, blackerberry2004. This is 2006 and not 2001. J/APRC carved a mere 39% of the Cake(registered voters). The remaining 60.5% was untouchable by the J/APRC. Let's call a Pie, a Pie. yeh,rah  |
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blackerberry2004
69 Posts |
Posted - 26 Sep 2006 : 22:18:37
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quote:
Originally posted by rah
quote:
Originally posted by rah
[Rah]’s input, according to my meager math knowledge, and all are welcome to correct me. reveals that only 39.5% of registered voters actually voted for **** J./APRC, totaling to 264,404 votes. The rest, i.e. 405,596 registered voters didn't vote for them, equating to 60.5% of registered voters who either voted for the opposition or just got intimidated from participating. That’s my input on the election results. For your information, the total amount of registered voters was 670,000 +/-? yeh,rah
Voter turnout of 59% in 2006 is a Far Cry from the 80% turnout of 2001, blackerberry2004. This is 2006 and not 2001. J/APRC carved a mere 39% of the Cake(registered voters). The remaining 60.5% was untouchable by the J/APRC. Let's call a Pie, a Pie. yeh,rah
Sorry Rah, you just called a CAKE a PIE or a PIE a CAKE! Just a Joke!
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blackerberry2004
69 Posts |
Posted - 26 Sep 2006 : 22:24:06
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Kondorong,
Well said! You are a true democrat. Some people cannot see the facts; they listen to their hearts instead of their heads.
I hope the opposition learnt a very important lesson. As for new breed of politicians, I nominate you Kondorong. |
Edited by - blackerberry2004 on 26 Sep 2006 22:25:01 |
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kondorong
Gambia
4380 Posts |
Posted - 26 Sep 2006 : 22:25:04
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GOLO AM NA ALMET
I am too short for the job, well below the age requirement and a dimwit. |
Edited by - kondorong on 26 Sep 2006 22:29:08 |
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rah
117 Posts |
Posted - 26 Sep 2006 : 22:29:08
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quote:
Sorry Rah, you just called a CAKE a PIE or a PIE a CAKE! Just a Joke!
Yeh bb2004, a cake is in the eating, and a pie is in the counting. yeh,rah |
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Cornelius
Sweden
1051 Posts |
Posted - 26 Sep 2006 : 23:09:14
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quote:
Originally posted by kondorong
GOLO AM NA ALMET
I am too short for the job, well below the age requirement and a dimwit.
Ramadan Karim Kondorong!
No quarrelling during Ramadan!
In the post-election fever the Muslim nation of the Gambia is now fasting and sober.
I noticed the Holy Zeal of Hon. Lamin Kabba Bajo, when talking about Israel, the God-given land and the cousins.
The age requirement?
Dr. Jammeh is over 40 - the age at which some people became prophets. The age at which a man is supposed to have a profession. In 40 days Dr. Maurice Bucaille says the foetus becomes a more advanced being.
Jesus fasted for 40 days and 40 nights
Moses was taught by the Almighty up in the mountain for 40 days
the children of Israel wandered in the wilderness for 40 years......
As for dimwit – we shouldn’t joke about such things - that's a modest qualification for those who say - as Touchstone "the fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool “
Something that can always be quoted against he who thinks he is wise.
And who was it who said "I only know that I know nothing" ?
One day you may have to defend yourself like this ( especially if you are an elitist)
http://classics.mit.edu/Plato/apology.html
Kondorong, I was truly moved by this your posting:
http://www.gambia.dk/forums/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=1885
If I were a Gambian , I would have responded like one, but I am only a guest in the house of Bantaba.
By SHORT, I presume that you mean short of cash, perhaps – that source of a lot of good. But don’t despair, there’s more cash available than you can count for the rest of life on earth – no guarantee it will fly you to heaven. ( And talking about heaven, leaves me wondering what his holiness the Pope really feels about Islam and Muslims who deny that his Lord was Crucified - that it only APPEARED to Peter and the others that he was. So naturally, the question of the resurrection does not occur as far as Mecca is concerned.
But back to being short: it is said that short people are more determined and more tenacious than tall people ( you know that it is almost forbidden for someone who is too tall to lead the prayers? ( Islam)
OK shorty ( he usually says, ( but I’m not short down there – where it counts ) Who cares?
Consider these two men ( for example)
http://search.yahoo.com/search?fr=slv2-&ei=UTF-8&p=David%20Ben-Gurion
http://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&sa=X&oi=spell&resnum=0&ct=result&cd=1&q=Yitzhak+Shamir&spell=1
And also consider Solomon Berewa – he’s not that tall or dim-witted either for being named after the wisest man that ever lived. So smart he had some 800 wives ( and remember you are permitted , max, 4, because relatively speaking , ( forget about grandpa’s style) can you handle more than one ( at a time) ?
There are serial monogamists
Time to go on with ransacking the conscience……
Good night Kondorong – be strong!
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Edited by - Cornelius on 26 Sep 2006 23:13:55 |
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kondorong
Gambia
4380 Posts |
Posted - 26 Sep 2006 : 23:19:43
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thanks cornelius
What i meant by being short is that i am not tall enough to be seen in a crowd so my supporters might have to grow tall or stretch their eye balls or necks to see me. Thats too much to ask for from supporters. Inshort "who the cap fits, let him wear it". It best fits others not me. |
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kobo
United Kingdom
7765 Posts |
Posted - 26 Sep 2006 : 23:32:29
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Kondorong thanks once again for that masterpiece of analysis. I seconded blackberry's nomination and may be you qualify as the prophecy of the promised messiah! Its a joke anyway but thank you for your good article.
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