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kayjatta
2978 Posts |
 Posted - 23 Mar 2010 : 09:09:28
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BANTABA OPINION POLL: A BRIEF ANALYSIS
Kayjatta.
A number of questions were posed to participants to Bantaba, a popular Gambian chat room concerning the Gambian opposition and its formation of a united coalition to contest the upcoming 2011 presidential elections in order to unseat the APRC government.
The responses are very interesting:
1. When asked whether the UDP-led coalition stands the best chance of winning elections in 2011; a clear majority of 56% said they think UDP-led coalition stands the best chance. 46% said otherwise, meaning they do not think UDP-led coalition stands the best chance of winning in 2011.
2. However, when asked if they support a UDP-led coalition for 2011, only half, 50% of the respondents said they do. The other 50% of the respondents either said they do not support a UDP-led coalition or that they are undecided.
Lesson 1: even though a clear majority considers a UDP-led coalition as the best chance of unseating Jammeh and the APRC (question 1 above), there is no majority in actual support of a UDP-led coalition (question 2 above).
3. When asked whether Lawyer Darboe, the leader and presidential candidate of UDP could be trusted to voluntarily give up power if elected by the opposition coalition; an overwhelming majority of 69% of the respondents said either they do not trust him or that they are not sure. Only 31% think he will voluntarily give up power.
Lesson 2: this is partly the reason why a majority is lacking in support of a UDP-led coalition as indicated in Lesson 1 above.
4. When further asked whether a limit of one term should be imposed as a condition for a UDP-led coalition, again an overwhelming majority responded yes. 61% said a one term limit should be imposed.
Lesson 3: this general quest for a term limit is perhaps an attempt by the respondents to exercise control over a presidency they do not trust. This lack of trust may or may not be specific to UDP or a UDP-led coalition, but may be an indication of the Gambian’s growing distrust of self-perpetuating leadership.
5. Participants were also asked whether Lawyer Darboe should retire from politics in the next five years. The response is startling; a landslide. 75% of the respondents agreed that he should retire from politics. Only 25% either thinks he should not retire or that they do not know.
Lesson 4: the respondents call for Darboe’s retirement from politics, after or before his one-term presidency, further indicates deep ambivalence about his potential presidency (see question 5). However, caution is necessary here because the call for Darboe’s retirement may also be influenced by the respondents’ awareness of his near-constitutional age limit for the presidency.
6. When finally asked whether the coalition government, if elected into office, would overcome the old conflicts that divided them; a majority, 64% of the respondents said that they will overcome their divisions. Only 36% think otherwise.
Lesson 5: the respondents’ over-confidence in the success of the united coalition government-any united coalition government- may in fact border on irrationality as it may only indicate the Gambians’ long yearning for any replacement of the APRC regime.
But perhaps this short survey, although only modestly; is an indictment of UDP. The survey reveals striking gaps between positive goodwill and the negative credibility for the UDP/Darboe.
Comment:
1. More people, especially Gambians need to participate in surveys like this.
2. This poll is however not a scientific poll.
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Edited by - kayjatta on 23 Mar 2010 09:16:47 |
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Momodou
Denmark
11828 Posts |
Posted - 23 Mar 2010 : 10:07:06
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Kay,
Thank you for the analysis.
Although the polls are not scientific, one could conclude that results are the honest opinion of those who took part in the polls so far.
One thing I wonder is the fact that only around 30 people voted out of over 200 who read some of these polls. It seems people like to talk but when it comes to taking action they are no where to be seen.
I agree with you that more people, especially Gambians need to participate in these polls.
Visitors should know that the administrators can’t see what you as an individual voted. They can only see the number of members and anonymous people who voted, so just feel free and take part. |
A clear conscience fears no accusation - proverb from Sierra Leone |
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kayjatta
2978 Posts |
Posted - 23 Mar 2010 : 10:22:08
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| I totally agree Momodou. More people (members) need to participate in these polls. It is somewhat like a civic duty to get yourself counted in surveys like this... |
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