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Dalton1
3485 Posts |
 Posted - 10 Aug 2006 : 16:15:28
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Deflectors to Nadd; Survey shows a margin lead.
After we authored "All set for NADD", reliable sources close to the Nadd campaign on the ground reveals of mass deflection of voters from all other parties, moreso the APRC to the patriotic alliance NADD. The young group of Nadd supporters called "Militants" are not leaving any stones unturned, as they engage in a strategic campaign moving door to door sensitizing the people on NADD.
During a short survey conducted with ten people at the Serekunda market, five people said they are voting for NADD, three for the UDP/NRP alliance, and two for APRC. If this short survey is to go by, Nadd owns fifty percent of the votes, and with the mass deflection that is currently observed, all indications are that NADD will continue to rise in the polls as the election get closer. Since the current constistution supports lead by majority of votes, then the Nadd campaign is already successful. Therefore, a message from the NADD campaign is advising both the APRC and UDP/NRP supporters not to waste their votes, inturn to put it in the right box-NADD. The same message is also calling on diasporans to call their family members and friends and tell them to vote for NADD, since that will be the best interest of our nation and its people.
Note: Normally, when we go the worshipping places, we are advised to enter first with our right legs, and in the bathrooms, to enter with our left legs. I was wondering which legs Nadd will enter first in the palace ? If you get a clue, share it with us.
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"There is no god but Allah (SWT); and Muhammad (SAW)is His last messenger." shahadah. Fear & Worship Allah (SWT) Alone! (:
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Edited by - Dalton1 on 10 Aug 2006 16:17:42 |
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Jack
Belgium
384 Posts |
Posted - 10 Aug 2006 : 16:43:25
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Sorry Dalton but a sample of 10 voters is of no value. Thats simple propaganda.  |
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blackerberry2004
69 Posts |
Posted - 10 Aug 2006 : 16:55:25
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| Sample is too small to be meaningful and Serekunda is not representative of Gambia. So you need to pull a bigger sample from a diverse group of eligible voters across the country. You should also be cognizant of biases. For a 90% confidence level, you need at least 203 random and un-bias observations. |
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BambaLaye
USA
100 Posts |
Posted - 10 Aug 2006 : 17:14:43
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"For a 90% confidence level, you need at least 203 random and un-bias observations."
Based on a population count of...?? Fill in the blank please. Unconventional poll mean anything to you? Let's not try to be too scientific please.
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Edited by - BambaLaye on 10 Aug 2006 17:15:20 |
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blackerberry2004
69 Posts |
Posted - 10 Aug 2006 : 18:29:36
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Bambalaye,
The population count is 820,782 (eligible voters i.e. 18+ years). Your argument of unconventional polling is worthless. You can apply reliable statistics but you have to count for certain "unconventionality" by controlling for these biases. The problem in Africa is that we do not do feasibility studies before we embark of projects or decisions; in the few instances we do, folks like you introduce a lot of "fudge" factor and "gut feeling" into the analysis which renders the results useless or off the mark.
I do not plan to make this an academic exercise or debate, so you can carve out your own theory.
In fact there is a saying in statistics, "Put one leg in fire and another in ice and on average you are comfortable". We all know that this is not true. A skillful statistician can manipulate the data to get the desired results. |
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kondorong
Gambia
4380 Posts |
Posted - 10 Aug 2006 : 18:32:02
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Certainly Serrekunda market is filled with people struggling with their fish money. You are most likely to meet angry people at markets than any where having already emptied their savings on basic food.
Besides, the urban areas are more political and tend to be more on the oposition side. It is Halifa's constituency. Try to have a poll in Brikama with atleast 200 people. Just be careful not to run into the Green Boys |
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Dalton1
3485 Posts |
Posted - 10 Aug 2006 : 19:11:07
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Folks,
Isn't it campaign time yet ? I agree the number we sampled, ten, is small, but this is only the start yet. We will sample Brikama, where Juwara and pa Manneh of Nadd are residenced. We will also reach out to others areas, and the overall summation will give us the final figure. For now, Nadd is leading by twent percent. S/K market, though, home for OJ and Halifa as Kondorong pointed, is also one of the most diverse markets, where people come from all areas, and this sample was randomly taken from passersby. It has probability one of reflecting even better in other areas.
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"There is no god but Allah (SWT); and Muhammad (SAW)is His last messenger." shahadah. Fear & Worship Allah (SWT) Alone! (:
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BambaLaye
USA
100 Posts |
Posted - 10 Aug 2006 : 20:17:05
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"The problem in Africa is that we do not do feasibility studies before we embark of projects or decisions; in the few instances we do, folks like you introduce a lot of "fudge" factor and "gut feeling" into the analysis which renders the results useless or off the mark."
What has such a highly non-scientific political propagndist poll got to do with feasibility of projects? Talk about introducing "fudge." You sound more fudgy than fudge itself.
Why can't you take Dalton's poll for what it is? I'll hold my gut feeling for your own scientific and much more accurate poll on your purported 820,782 voters. Just let me know when to expect your results. Relax!
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Edited by - BambaLaye on 10 Aug 2006 20:57:14 |
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kondorong
Gambia
4380 Posts |
Posted - 10 Aug 2006 : 20:36:32
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simmer down guys.
Its not official campaign time yet. Nominations have not even closed yet. I hope Dalton!'s poll is reflected all over the country with NADD leading.
We will have CHURA GERR TEH for breakfast at statehouse when we win. Special hummers will fly through the window and we will bring sanity to spending. |
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Dalton1
3485 Posts |
Posted - 10 Aug 2006 : 21:06:16
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quote:
Originally posted by kondorong
simmer down guys.
We will have CHURA GERR TEH for breakfast at statehouse when we win. Special hummers will fly through the window and we will bring sanity to spending.
Kondorong,
better start preparing it. it used to be one of my favorites-thick one, with enough groundnuts. Make sure you get enough sugar, and sour milk-or just the fehneh part of the sour milk.
I will sample 15 peopple at the Brikama market by the weekend. Also Banjul. Juwara and Pa's presense cannot be mere coincidence. Nadd got Wulli, and Jarra. These are Nadd strong holds...no doubt . In foni, we get Dobong/Kansalla.
See you tomorrow. Happy friday eve to all ! |
"There is no god but Allah (SWT); and Muhammad (SAW)is His last messenger." shahadah. Fear & Worship Allah (SWT) Alone! (:
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Edited by - Dalton1 on 10 Aug 2006 21:07:54 |
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kondorong
Gambia
4380 Posts |
Posted - 10 Aug 2006 : 21:09:57
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Kondorong is organising all the JARR GAs in the country. Plenty of FENEH. Dont worry about that. NADD peoople are very humble and dont expect forks and knives. Our five fingers are designed to feed us.
You better believe it. With NADD expect no leakages. This what many are afraid of in the country. |
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Dalton1
3485 Posts |
Posted - 10 Aug 2006 : 21:15:51
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quote:
Originally posted by kondorong
NADD peoople are very humble and dont expect forks and knives. Our five fingers are designed to feed us.
You need to stop there. Your short narrations nearly make me drop tears, when memory lingers-using the hand to eat churah gerteh. It taste better than using a spoon or calabash (wooden spoons). U ever took a note of that ?
Like i said, later. Got to leave now ! |
"There is no god but Allah (SWT); and Muhammad (SAW)is His last messenger." shahadah. Fear & Worship Allah (SWT) Alone! (:
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blackerberry2004
69 Posts |
Posted - 10 Aug 2006 : 21:15:59
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Amen!!!!!! "Chura gerteh" is my favorite. I hope I would be invited for breakfast.
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kondorong
Gambia
4380 Posts |
Posted - 10 Aug 2006 : 21:28:03
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Just wash your hands clean. We will restore culture and humility which for over 40 years the State house has not seen. We do not need heavy security. We have nothing to hide and are not afraid to be challenged.
Dalton,i had my own issue with CHURA GERR TEH while on trek in the north bank many years ago. It happended in Kuntaya at late Mr. Khan's home wehere we spent the night. having toured the whole of north bank and not drinking milk, i was just a sad man coming to banjul little did i know that my prayers will soon be answered.
I was so eager for breakfast as my host told me it was CHURA GERR TEH, very thick and a lot of peanuts and guess what, it came with FENEH.
I thought that was not enough and decided to buy some Peak Milk, the double deck tin and added to it. i now know why the wollof say LU OOPA TURU.(If you over fill, expect drips).
By the time i arrived in Essau, and with the blazing sun i just could not open my eyes. I was dead asleep. |
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rah
117 Posts |
Posted - 11 Aug 2006 : 15:29:54
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An interesting Live Results polled for http://allgambian.net/
September Countdown: Who gets your vote among the candidates?
Incumbent Yahya Jammeh (APRC) 2.26%
Henry Gomez (GPDP) 0.95%
Hon. Halifa Salllah (NADD) 51.12%
Lawyer Ousainou Darboe (UDP/NRP) 44.69%
United Opposition (UDP/NRP/NADD) 0.97%
5131 responses
This poll reports only the opinions of the actual respondents and is not representative of any group or the public as a whole.
And still counting.Is this poll relevant? yeh,rah
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Edited by - rah on 11 Aug 2006 15:43:14 |
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Dalton1
3485 Posts |
Posted - 11 Aug 2006 : 16:44:37
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Chei rah,
Go Nadd Go ! That confirms what is on the ground. |
"There is no god but Allah (SWT); and Muhammad (SAW)is His last messenger." shahadah. Fear & Worship Allah (SWT) Alone! (:
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