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mansasulu
997 Posts |
 Posted - 01 Feb 2011 : 21:44:34
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When Hezbollah went toe to toe with Israel in the summer of 2006, then Sec of State Condi Rice called it “The birthpangs of a new Middle East.” How premature those “pangs” where in the light of the recent events in the land of the Pharaohs and the Arab world in general. Alas! Egypt’s last Pharaoh is hanging by a thread.
Madam Rice’s premonitions were that the results of that rumble would usher in a new order that will see the realignment of Arab democrats and Israel as a force to deal with the threats emanating from Iran and Syria, two countries in the Middle East who are always thought of in unfavorable terms.
History by the way, was not one of Condoleezza’s greatest strengths…when everything is said and done she will probably rank up there as one of the most short sighted secretaries of state in US history.
That Hezbollah (not Lebanon) held its ground against mighty Israel with all of its modern and sophisticated weaponry should have been indications that those pangs were indeed signs of “false labor” and not the ushering in of a new era in the already complicated and complex intricacies of strategic Middle East geopolitics.
Egypt is not well known for large deposits of petroleum, but according to Thomas Friedman, what it lacks in petrodollars it makes us for in peace with Israel.
At a tune of $1.3B in annual aid, Mubarak has been able to almost single handedly keep the floodgates of a faulty relatively latent balance of power in place in the Middle East.
If Mubarak tumbles, and all indications are that he is a dead man walking, Egypt will make Tunisia look like comparing Nachos to the Big Enchilada…
At a cost of almost three decades of a tyranny, repression and regression under a continuous state of emergency, Mubarak had gradually lost touch with needs of his “subjects” (I used this term deliberately).
It was rather ironic that the tear gas canisters that were used by the brutal Egyptian security forces against the protestors were “Made in the USA.” This comes on the heels of allegations in “Palestine Paper” where PLO negotiators were asking their Israeli counterparts for tear gas canister to use against their own civilians they claim to be representing at those peace talks.
Even the Obama administration appeared to have been caught flatfooted. According to Chuch Todd of the NBC, the White House had to rely on…of all networks, the great pariah in “Al-Jazeerah” to know what was truly happening. For once, I felt like my little smartphone with which I could watch Al-Jazeerah live was the greatest equalizer in fast moving media controlled environment. I had unfettered access to the same feed beaming into the White House ‘situation room’.
Consequently, the message coming from the White House appears to be incoherent, ambiguous and mired in confusion. This is a case of “are you with the people or with the autocrat” and we can’t figure out which it is? Sounds familiars?? Talk about walking a very wobbly diplomatic tight rope…How we all wish the world is written in those simplistic terms.
The worries of the “powers be” in the West, particularly in Washington is that what next, not if but when Mubarak is gone. The same dilemma is facing the like of Kings Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and Jordan and more so Mahmoud Abbas and Benjamin Netanyahu across the border.
Netanyahu and Mubarak have a very good cordial relationship and the reason is becoming rather more apparent. Abbas called Mubarak to pledge solidarity with him as hundreds of Palestinian prisoners held in Egyptian prisons by Mubarak were finding their way back to Gaza.
Netanyahu was the only leader in the Middle East to tell Western leaders to lay off the criticism…except of King Abdullah’s rather weak attempts at showing solidarity with his fellow pariah…
To the Israelis, Mubarak has held his side of the bargain in enforcing the blockade of Gaza from the Egyptian side of the border and in other areas of “mutual cooperation”. He is a man they have grown to trust so much so that Israeli has not been actively monitoring Egypt like it does other “hostile” nations in the neighborhood like Syria, Iran and Iraq over the years.
This brings me to the QUESTION of WHY?? are all the interested players, particularly the US and ISRAEL getting …to quote Obama…”so Wee-weed up” ?
The answer is simple. Egypt is the only country in the region with the capability to engage Israel in a multi-dimensional war, sort of the use of Nuclear weapons. The Egyptian military is a well respected institution in Egypt.
Up until now, Syria, Iran, Libya until recently, and Iraq under Saddam have had an insatiable and obsessive drive to lay their hands on this priceless gem in warfare in order to cancel out that advantage that Israel has. According to some accounts, Israel has more nuclear war heads (between 75-400) than China, France and England.
Over the past three decades, the Egyptian military was able to get some of the finest and sophisticated weaponry from the United States (F16s and down the line…) as a result of being at peace with Israel.
I will leave the rest to you to draw conclusions as to what could happen if the authority to lead Egypt falls into the hands of someone who does not dance to the tunes coming from Washington or Tel Aviv.
How I wish I could see into the future, and precisely predict what will happen. We can only wait and wonder!
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"...Verily, in the remembrance of Allâh do hearts find rest..." Sura Al-Rad (Chapter 13, Verse 28)
...Gambian by birth, Muslim by the grace of Allah... |
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turk
USA
3356 Posts |
Posted - 02 Feb 2011 : 06:18:30
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| Let me predict the future. Erdogan was able to unite with liberals who like the idea of market economy and liberal values in social life. Last time, a survey indicated that 47 of Erdogan support, more than half came from liberals. How did that happen? Liberals are supporting Conservative Muslims? It was because, liberals were fed up with the ultra secular, USA supported military dominance in Turkey. Egypt is not much different. The power in Egypt is belongs to Mubarak and military. And the most liberal, young, middle class are now protesting along with Muslims Brotherhood. Is it a coincidence? I am hoping Egyptian people have some consensus and unite similar type of alliance in Turkey. And hope they start worry about themselves first, rather than USA, Israel when it comes to diplomacy. Like Turkey, Egypt could became a soft power which could have bigger impact to shape the 'new middle east' than military power. |
diaspora! Too many Chiefs and Very Few Indians.
Halifa Salah: PDOIS is however realistic. It is fully aware that the Gambian voters are yet to reach a level of political consciousness that they rely on to vote on the basis of Principles, policies and programmes and practices. |
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turk
USA
3356 Posts |
Posted - 06 Feb 2011 : 05:55:43
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| ....not only me. |
diaspora! Too many Chiefs and Very Few Indians.
Halifa Salah: PDOIS is however realistic. It is fully aware that the Gambian voters are yet to reach a level of political consciousness that they rely on to vote on the basis of Principles, policies and programmes and practices. |
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mansasulu
997 Posts |
Posted - 07 Feb 2011 : 16:26:27
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| The Turkish Model is perhaps a good start... |
"...Verily, in the remembrance of Allâh do hearts find rest..." Sura Al-Rad (Chapter 13, Verse 28)
...Gambian by birth, Muslim by the grace of Allah... |
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kobo
United Kingdom
7765 Posts |
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toubab1020
12311 Posts |
Posted - 10 Feb 2011 : 17:55:24
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Egypt is moving at a fast pace to try to change,I am very concerned by the rider that the BBC when asking for information from inside Egypt,by those who wished to send such information to the outside world ,I have copied and pasted their words below:
"In most cases a selection of your comments will be published, displaying your name as you provide it and location unless you state otherwise. But your contact details will never be published. When sending us pictures, video or eyewitness accounts at no time should you endanger yourself or others, take any unnecessary risks or infringe any laws."
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"Simple is good" & I strongly dislike politics. You cannot defend the indefensible.
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kobo
United Kingdom
7765 Posts |
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kobo
United Kingdom
7765 Posts |
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Dalton1
3485 Posts |
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| Bantaba in Cyberspace |
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